2010/05/03
The Slick
Three scenarios lie ahead. They rank as bad, worse, and ugliest (the latter being catastrophic and unprecedented). There is no “good” here.
The Bad.
Containment chambers are put in place and they catch the outflow from the three ruptures that are currently pouring 200,000 gallons of oil into the Gulf every day. If this works, it will take until June to complete. The chambers are 30-foot-high steel configurations that must be placed on the ocean floor at a depth of one mile. This has never been done before. If early containment is successful, the damages from this accident will be in the tens of billions. The cleanup will take years. The economic impact will be in the five states that have frontal coastline on the Gulf of Mexico: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.
The Worse.
The containment attempts fail and oil spews for months, until a new well can successfully be drilled to a depth of 13000 feet below the 5000-foot-deep ocean floor, and then concrete and mud are injected into the existing ruptured well until it is successfully closed and sealed. Work on this approach is already commencing. Timeframe for success is at least three months. Note the new well will have to come within about 20 feet of the existing point where the original well enters the reservoir at a distance of 3.5 miles from the surface drilling rig. Damages by this time may be measured in the hundreds of billions. Cleanup will take many, many years. Tourism, fishing, all related industries may be fundamentally changed for as much as a generation. Spread to Mexico and other Gulf geography is possible.
The Ugliest.
This spew stoppage takes longer to reach a full closure; the subsequent cleanup may take a decade. The Gulf becomes a damaged sea for a generation. The oil slick leaks beyond the western Florida coast, enters the Gulfstream and reaches the eastern coast of the United States and beyond. Use your imagination for the rest of the damage. Monetary cost is now measured in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.
Too bad for everybody who had a mortgage or rental property on the gulf coast.
Too bad for everybody who borrowed money to operate a fishing or shrimp or tourist boat.
Too bad for the insurance industry. They’re going to need a federal bailout.
Too bad for the American taxpayers. We’re going to be on the hook for this one way or another.
And what happens if there’s a hurricane in the gulf this year?
Filed under Disaster, Environment, Hitting the Fan by kodewords
Comments on The Slick »
“One-third of all fresh water will be poisoned”
“Then the third angel poured out his bowl on the rivers and springs of water, and they became blood”
“And the second angel poured out his VIAL upon the sea; and it became as the blood of a dead man: and every living soul died in the sea”
“God will contaminate 1/3 of the fresh water in the first half of the Tribulation; God will contaminate all fresh water in the Great Tribulation”
“the third part of the waters became wormwood; and many men died of the waters, because they were made bitter”
“Something like a great mountain burning with fire is thrown into the sea [O HAI are they gonna "burn off" the oil"?], 1/3 of the sea becomes blood, 1/3 of living creatures in the sea die and 1/3 of the ships are destroyed. 3. A falling star makes 1/3 of the springs and rivers bitter, which causes people to die when they drink the water”
And so forth.
This doesn’t bode well.